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Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming

Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane sho...

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Autores principales: Otto, Christian, Kuhla, Kilian, Geiger, Tobias, Schewe, Jacob, Frieler, Katja
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616
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author Otto, Christian
Kuhla, Kilian
Geiger, Tobias
Schewe, Jacob
Frieler, Katja
author_facet Otto, Christian
Kuhla, Kilian
Geiger, Tobias
Schewe, Jacob
Frieler, Katja
author_sort Otto, Christian
collection PubMed
description Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses.
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spelling pubmed-98123782023-01-18 Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja Sci Adv Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023-01-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ /pubmed/36598974 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 Text en Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
Otto, Christian
Kuhla, Kilian
Geiger, Tobias
Schewe, Jacob
Frieler, Katja
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
title Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
title_full Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
title_fullStr Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
title_full_unstemmed Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
title_short Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
title_sort better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from u.s. hurricanes under global warming
topic Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616
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