Cargando…
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane sho...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
American Association for the Advancement of Science
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
_version_ | 1784863712739328000 |
---|---|
author | Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
author_facet | Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
author_sort | Otto, Christian |
collection | PubMed |
description | Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9812378 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-98123782023-01-18 Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja Sci Adv Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2023-01-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ /pubmed/36598974 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 Text en Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title | Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full | Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_fullStr | Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full_unstemmed | Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_short | Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_sort | better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from u.s. hurricanes under global warming |
topic | Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT ottochristian betterinsurancecouldeffectivelymitigatetheincreaseineconomicgrowthlossesfromushurricanesunderglobalwarming AT kuhlakilian betterinsurancecouldeffectivelymitigatetheincreaseineconomicgrowthlossesfromushurricanesunderglobalwarming AT geigertobias betterinsurancecouldeffectivelymitigatetheincreaseineconomicgrowthlossesfromushurricanesunderglobalwarming AT schewejacob betterinsurancecouldeffectivelymitigatetheincreaseineconomicgrowthlossesfromushurricanesunderglobalwarming AT frielerkatja betterinsurancecouldeffectivelymitigatetheincreaseineconomicgrowthlossesfromushurricanesunderglobalwarming |