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How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates

Currently, finding ways to effectively control the spread of Omicron in regions with low vaccination rates is an urgent issue. In this study, we use a district-level model for predicting the COVID-19 symptom onset risk to explore and control the whole process of spread of Omicron in South Africa at...

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Autores principales: Tong, Chengzhuo, Shi, Zhicheng, Shi, Wenzhong, Zhang, Anshu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9815609/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36620235
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.959076
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author Tong, Chengzhuo
Shi, Zhicheng
Shi, Wenzhong
Zhang, Anshu
author_facet Tong, Chengzhuo
Shi, Zhicheng
Shi, Wenzhong
Zhang, Anshu
author_sort Tong, Chengzhuo
collection PubMed
description Currently, finding ways to effectively control the spread of Omicron in regions with low vaccination rates is an urgent issue. In this study, we use a district-level model for predicting the COVID-19 symptom onset risk to explore and control the whole process of spread of Omicron in South Africa at a finer spatial scale. We found that in the early stage of the accelerated spread, Omicron spreads rapidly from the districts at the center of human mobility to other important districts of the human mobility network and its peripheral districts. In the subsequent diffusion–contraction stage, Omicron rapidly spreads to districts with low human mobility and then mainly contracts to districts with the highest human mobility. We found that increasing daily vaccination rates 10 times mainly reduced the symptom onset risk in remote areas with low human mobility. Implementing Alert Level 5 in the three districts at the epicenter, and Alert Level 1 in the remaining 49 districts, the spatial spread related to human mobility was effectively restricted, and the daily onset risk in districts with high human mobility also decreased by 20–80%.
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spelling pubmed-98156092023-01-06 How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates Tong, Chengzhuo Shi, Zhicheng Shi, Wenzhong Zhang, Anshu Front Public Health Public Health Currently, finding ways to effectively control the spread of Omicron in regions with low vaccination rates is an urgent issue. In this study, we use a district-level model for predicting the COVID-19 symptom onset risk to explore and control the whole process of spread of Omicron in South Africa at a finer spatial scale. We found that in the early stage of the accelerated spread, Omicron spreads rapidly from the districts at the center of human mobility to other important districts of the human mobility network and its peripheral districts. In the subsequent diffusion–contraction stage, Omicron rapidly spreads to districts with low human mobility and then mainly contracts to districts with the highest human mobility. We found that increasing daily vaccination rates 10 times mainly reduced the symptom onset risk in remote areas with low human mobility. Implementing Alert Level 5 in the three districts at the epicenter, and Alert Level 1 in the remaining 49 districts, the spatial spread related to human mobility was effectively restricted, and the daily onset risk in districts with high human mobility also decreased by 20–80%. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-12-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9815609/ /pubmed/36620235 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.959076 Text en Copyright © 2022 Tong, Shi, Shi and Zhang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Tong, Chengzhuo
Shi, Zhicheng
Shi, Wenzhong
Zhang, Anshu
How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates
title How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates
title_full How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates
title_fullStr How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates
title_full_unstemmed How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates
title_short How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates
title_sort how to control the spatiotemporal spread of omicron in the region with low vaccination rates
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9815609/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36620235
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.959076
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