Evidence on the Effects of the Federal COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate on Nursing Home Staffing Levels

OBJECTIVE: To assess the federal COVID-19 vaccine mandate's effects on nursing homes' nurse aide and licensed nurse staffing levels in states both with and without state-level vaccine mandates. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Economic Innovation Group. Including nursing home facility fixed effects provides evidence on the intertemporal effects of the federal vaccine mandate within nursing homes. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The sample contains 15,031 nursing homes, representing all US nursing homes with available data. METHODS: On January 13, 2022, the US Supreme Court upheld the federal COVID-19 vaccine mandate for health care workers in Medicare- and Medicaid-eligible facilities, with workers generally required to be vaccinated by March 20, 2022 (ie, the compliance date). We examined actual nursing home staffing levels in 3 time periods: (1) pre-Court decision; (2) precompliance date; and (3) postcompliance date. We separately examined staffing levels for nurse aides and licensed nursing staff. Because 28% of nursing homes were in states with state-imposed vaccine mandates that predated the Supreme Court's ruling, we divided the sample into 2 groups (nursing homes in mandate states vs nonmandate states) and performed all analyses separately. RESULTS: Staff vaccination rates and staffing levels were higher in mandate states than nonmandate states in all 3 time periods. After the Court's decision, staff vaccination rates increased 5% in nonmandate states and 1% in mandate states (on average). We find little evidence that the Court's vaccine mandate ruling materially affected nurse aide and licensed nurse staffing levels, or that nursing homes in mandate states and nonmandate states were differentially affected by the Court's ruling. Staffing levels over time were generally flat, with some evidence of a modestly greater increase for nurse aide staffing in mandate states than nonmandate states, and a modestly smaller decrease for licensed nurse staffing in mandate states than nonmandate states. Finally, regression results suggest that for both nurse aides and licensed nurses, staffing levels were lower in rural and for-profit nursing homes, and higher in Medicare-only, higher quality, and hospital-based nursing homes. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Results suggest the federal COVID-19 vaccine mandate has not caused clinically material changes in nursing home's nurse aide and licensed nurse staffing levels, which continue to be primarily associated with factors that are well-known to researchers and practitioners.