Cargando…

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios

With the rapid urban expansion and extensive occupation of cropland, sloping cropland has become an important cropland resource across China. How sloping cropland will change under different socioeconomic scenarios is poorly understood. Therefore, we modeled land-cover change using SSP-RCP multi-sce...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Yao, Xiaowei, Luo, Ting, Xu, Yingjun, Chen, Wanxu, Zeng, Jie
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9819130/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36612504
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010182
_version_ 1784865155385917440
author Yao, Xiaowei
Luo, Ting
Xu, Yingjun
Chen, Wanxu
Zeng, Jie
author_facet Yao, Xiaowei
Luo, Ting
Xu, Yingjun
Chen, Wanxu
Zeng, Jie
author_sort Yao, Xiaowei
collection PubMed
description With the rapid urban expansion and extensive occupation of cropland, sloping cropland has become an important cropland resource across China. How sloping cropland will change under different socioeconomic scenarios is poorly understood. Therefore, we modeled land-cover change using SSP-RCP multi-scenario simulations and analyzed the evolution and driving factors of sloping cropland change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Region (MRYRR). The results indicate the following: In the past twenty years, the cropland and sloping cropland areas in this region declined but the proportion of sloping cropland in total area has been increasing. The average slope of sloping cropland has increased from 7.95° to 8.28°. By 2035, the sloping cropland and total cropland areas will continue to decrease according to the current trend (SSP2-4.5). The average slope will increase maximally to 8.63° under the SSP4-3.4 scenario and minimally to 8.45° under the SSP4-6.0 scenario. Under SSP4-3.4, the extent of slope increase will exceed that in 2005–2010, when regional cropland slope showed the strongest increase in the past. Among 14 social, economic, and ecological factors, average annual precipitation and GDP contributed the most to the change in sloping cropland. This study provides support for decision-making in sustainable land resource allocation to balance urban expansion and cropland conservation.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9819130
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-98191302023-01-07 Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios Yao, Xiaowei Luo, Ting Xu, Yingjun Chen, Wanxu Zeng, Jie Int J Environ Res Public Health Article With the rapid urban expansion and extensive occupation of cropland, sloping cropland has become an important cropland resource across China. How sloping cropland will change under different socioeconomic scenarios is poorly understood. Therefore, we modeled land-cover change using SSP-RCP multi-scenario simulations and analyzed the evolution and driving factors of sloping cropland change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Region (MRYRR). The results indicate the following: In the past twenty years, the cropland and sloping cropland areas in this region declined but the proportion of sloping cropland in total area has been increasing. The average slope of sloping cropland has increased from 7.95° to 8.28°. By 2035, the sloping cropland and total cropland areas will continue to decrease according to the current trend (SSP2-4.5). The average slope will increase maximally to 8.63° under the SSP4-3.4 scenario and minimally to 8.45° under the SSP4-6.0 scenario. Under SSP4-3.4, the extent of slope increase will exceed that in 2005–2010, when regional cropland slope showed the strongest increase in the past. Among 14 social, economic, and ecological factors, average annual precipitation and GDP contributed the most to the change in sloping cropland. This study provides support for decision-making in sustainable land resource allocation to balance urban expansion and cropland conservation. MDPI 2022-12-23 /pmc/articles/PMC9819130/ /pubmed/36612504 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010182 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Yao, Xiaowei
Luo, Ting
Xu, Yingjun
Chen, Wanxu
Zeng, Jie
Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios
title Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios
title_full Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios
title_fullStr Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios
title_short Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios
title_sort prediction of spatiotemporal changes in sloping cropland in the middle reaches of the yangtze river region under different scenarios
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9819130/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36612504
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010182
work_keys_str_mv AT yaoxiaowei predictionofspatiotemporalchangesinslopingcroplandinthemiddlereachesoftheyangtzeriverregionunderdifferentscenarios
AT luoting predictionofspatiotemporalchangesinslopingcroplandinthemiddlereachesoftheyangtzeriverregionunderdifferentscenarios
AT xuyingjun predictionofspatiotemporalchangesinslopingcroplandinthemiddlereachesoftheyangtzeriverregionunderdifferentscenarios
AT chenwanxu predictionofspatiotemporalchangesinslopingcroplandinthemiddlereachesoftheyangtzeriverregionunderdifferentscenarios
AT zengjie predictionofspatiotemporalchangesinslopingcroplandinthemiddlereachesoftheyangtzeriverregionunderdifferentscenarios