Spatial-Temporal Variations and Trade-Offs of Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province, China

Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and trade-offs of ecosystem services (ESs) is important for optimizing the ecological security barrier system and promoting coordinated socio-economic development. Natural factors, e.g., climate change, and human factors, e.g., unreasonable land use, have impacted and damaged ecosystem structure and function, leading to challenges with ES trade-offs and the spatial identification of priority protected areas. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of five ESs (water yield, nitrogen export, soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality) in Anhui Province, China, from 2000–2020 were analyzed based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. The trade-offs and spatial patterns among different ESs were explored using Pearson correlation and hotspot analyses; the dynamics of natural growth, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios for ESs in 2030 were simulated and analyzed by coupling InVEST with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results reveal the following. (1) From 2000–2020, increases in water yield and soil retention occurred, with concurrent declines in the other services; the total nitrogen high-value area was mainly concentrated in the plain, with the other services’ high-value areas mainly concentrated in the Dabieshan and Southern Anhui Mountains, with each ES showing similar spatial distributions across years. (2) The ESs were mainly synergistic, with trade-offs mainly between nitrogen export and other services. (3) Hotspot overlap between water yield and the other ESs was relatively low; no more than 6.53% of ecosystems per unit area provided five ESs simultaneously. (4) Other than water yield, the ecological protection scenario was more conducive to improving ecosystem functions. This study’s results indicate inadequate synergy among ESs in Anhui Province; competition among land types must be further balanced in the future. This study provides a basic reference for implementing ecological projects and constructing ecological security patterns.