The linkage of depressive and anxiety disorders with the expected labor market affiliation (ELMA): a longitudinal multi-state study of Danish employees

OBJECTIVE: Depressive and anxiety disorders are prevalent among employees in general. Still, knowledge regarding the contribution of these disorders to the dynamics of the labor market in terms of working time, sickness absence, and unemployment is scarce. We aim to quantify the linkage of depressive and anxiety disorders with labor market participation using the expected labor market affiliation method (ELMA), in a large sample of Danish employees. METHODS: We combined three survey waves on occupational health with six high-quality national registers in N = 43,148 Danish employees, of which the 2012 survey contributed 29,665 person years, the 2014 survey 33,043 person years, and the 2016 survey 35,375 person years. We used the new ELMA method to estimate the multi-state transition probabilities and 2-year expected time in work, sickness absence, and unemployment. Depressive and anxiety disorders were assessed by the Major Depression Inventory and the SCL-ANX4 scales, respectively. We adjusted for multiple variables by applying inverse probability weighting in groups of gender and age. RESULTS: Depressive and anxiety disorders among employees link to reduced labor market affiliation by significantly changed transitions probabilities between the labor markets states, viewed as reduced working time by 4–51 days (in two years), increased time in sickness absence by 6–44 days (in two years), and unemployment by 6–12 days (in two years) when compared to employees without depression or anxiety disorders. The results were most pronounced for women employees and for employees with both depression and anxiety disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals detailed insight into what extent depression and anxiety disorders influence the labor market affiliation, in terms of the complex interrelation between working time, sickness absence, and unemployment. The study emphasizes the importance of preventing and handling depressive and anxiety disorders among employees for strengthening work participation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00420-022-01906-z.