Being poor and being NEET in Europe: Are these two sides of the same coin?

We implement a dynamic bivariate probit model to explore the possible relation between at-risk-of-poverty and NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) in 21 European countries using 2016–2019 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions panel data. We identify genuine state dependence and account for possible feedback effects from past poverty to the NEET status. We also consider two alternative definitions of NEET, i.e. unemployed and inactive NEET and inactive NEET only. We find that both poverty and NEET are characterized by significant genuine state dependence. We also observe a vicious circle between the phenomena, especially when adopting the definition that includes unemployed and inactive NEETs. This suggests a leading role of unemployment in the detrimental effect of being NEET on poverty. We offer supplementary analyses and further insights on country heterogeneity by looking at the role of social protection expenditure. Finally, we stress that for young NEETS living outside of the family of origin, the NEET condition is not detrimental for poverty, conditional on the provision of adequate youth support. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-022-09561-7.