Explainable haemoglobin deferral predictions using machine learning models: Interpretation and consequences for the blood supply

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Accurate predictions of haemoglobin (Hb) deferral for whole‐blood donors could aid blood banks in reducing deferral rates and increasing efficiency and donor motivation. Complex models are needed to make accurate predictions, but predictions must also be explainable. Before the implementation of a prediction model, its impact on the blood supply should be estimated to avoid shortages. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Donation visits between October 2017 and December 2021 were selected from Sanquin's database system. The following variables were available for each visit: donor sex, age, donation start time, month, number of donations in the last 24 months, most recent ferritin level, days since last ferritin measurement, Hb at nth previous visit (n between 1 and 5), days since the nth previous visit. Outcome Hb deferral has two classes: deferred and not deferred. Support vector machines were used as prediction models, and SHapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the contribution of each variable to the model predictions. Performance was assessed using precision and recall. The potential impact on blood supply was estimated by predicting deferral at earlier or later donation dates. RESULTS: We present a model that predicts Hb deferral in an explainable way. If used in practice, 64% of non‐deferred donors would be invited on or before their original donation date, while 80% of deferred donors would be invited later. CONCLUSION: By using this model to invite donors, the number of blood bank visits would increase by 15%, while deferral rates would decrease by 60% (currently 3% for women and 1% for men).