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Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land‐use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adapti...

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Autores principales: Ureta, Carolina, Ramírez‐Barrón, Mercedes, Sánchez‐García, Edgar Andrés, Cuervo‐Robayo, Angela P., Munguía‐Carrara, Mariana, Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma, Gay, Carlos, Sánchez‐Cordero, Víctor
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9826092/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36053734
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16411
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author Ureta, Carolina
Ramírez‐Barrón, Mercedes
Sánchez‐García, Edgar Andrés
Cuervo‐Robayo, Angela P.
Munguía‐Carrara, Mariana
Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma
Gay, Carlos
Sánchez‐Cordero, Víctor
author_facet Ureta, Carolina
Ramírez‐Barrón, Mercedes
Sánchez‐García, Edgar Andrés
Cuervo‐Robayo, Angela P.
Munguía‐Carrara, Mariana
Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma
Gay, Carlos
Sánchez‐Cordero, Víctor
author_sort Ureta, Carolina
collection PubMed
description There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land‐use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait‐based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores–granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body‐sized groups, large‐sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi‐aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full‐dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non‐dispersal assumption. Species‐rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species‐rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High‐risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species‐rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.
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spelling pubmed-98260922023-01-09 Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico Ureta, Carolina Ramírez‐Barrón, Mercedes Sánchez‐García, Edgar Andrés Cuervo‐Robayo, Angela P. Munguía‐Carrara, Mariana Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma Gay, Carlos Sánchez‐Cordero, Víctor Glob Chang Biol Research Articles There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land‐use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait‐based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores–granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body‐sized groups, large‐sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi‐aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full‐dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non‐dispersal assumption. Species‐rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species‐rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High‐risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species‐rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-09-13 2022-12 /pmc/articles/PMC9826092/ /pubmed/36053734 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16411 Text en © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Ureta, Carolina
Ramírez‐Barrón, Mercedes
Sánchez‐García, Edgar Andrés
Cuervo‐Robayo, Angela P.
Munguía‐Carrara, Mariana
Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma
Gay, Carlos
Sánchez‐Cordero, Víctor
Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico
title Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico
title_full Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico
title_fullStr Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico
title_full_unstemmed Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico
title_short Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico
title_sort species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in mexico
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9826092/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36053734
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16411
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