Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident

We introduce a SEIRD compartmental model to analyze the dynamics of the pandemic in Bangladesh. The multi-wave patterns of the new infective in Bangladesh from the day of the official confirmation to August 15, 2021, are simulated in the proposed SEIRD model. To solve the model equations numerically...

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Autores principales: Malek, Abdul, Hoque, Ashabul
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2023
Materias:
Research Paper
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9826761/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40995-022-01410-6
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author Malek, Abdul
Hoque, Ashabul
author_facet Malek, Abdul
Hoque, Ashabul
author_sort Malek, Abdul
collection PubMed
description We introduce a SEIRD compartmental model to analyze the dynamics of the pandemic in Bangladesh. The multi-wave patterns of the new infective in Bangladesh from the day of the official confirmation to August 15, 2021, are simulated in the proposed SEIRD model. To solve the model equations numerically, we use the RK-45 method. Primarily, we establish some theorems including local and global stability for the proposed model. The analysis shows that the death curve simulated by the model provides a very good agreement with the officially confirmed death data for the Covid-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. Furthermore, the proposed model estimates the duration and peaks of Covid-19 in Bangladesh which are compared with the real data.
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spelling pubmed-98267612023-01-09 Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident Malek, Abdul Hoque, Ashabul Iran J Sci Research Paper We introduce a SEIRD compartmental model to analyze the dynamics of the pandemic in Bangladesh. The multi-wave patterns of the new infective in Bangladesh from the day of the official confirmation to August 15, 2021, are simulated in the proposed SEIRD model. To solve the model equations numerically, we use the RK-45 method. Primarily, we establish some theorems including local and global stability for the proposed model. The analysis shows that the death curve simulated by the model provides a very good agreement with the officially confirmed death data for the Covid-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. Furthermore, the proposed model estimates the duration and peaks of Covid-19 in Bangladesh which are compared with the real data. Springer International Publishing 2023-01-09 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9826761/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40995-022-01410-6 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Shiraz University 2023, corrected publication 2023Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Research Paper
Malek, Abdul
Hoque, Ashabul
Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident
title Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident
title_full Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident
title_fullStr Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident
title_full_unstemmed Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident
title_short Model Development and Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh with Nonlinear Incident
title_sort model development and prediction of covid-19 pandemic in bangladesh with nonlinear incident
topic Research Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9826761/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40995-022-01410-6
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