The epidemic of malignant mesothelioma in China: a prediction of incidence during 2016–2030

BACKGROUND: Malignant mesothelioma is an invasive cancer with a poor prognosis. The crude incidence rate of malignant mesothelioma in China increased throughout 2000 to 2013, which attracted attention. In order to predict the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma in China, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) prediction model was constructed using publicly available data from the National Cancer Registration Network. METHODS: Based on the annual reports of the national cancer registration from 2005 to 2015, the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma from 2016 to 2030 in China was forecast using the APC Modeling and Prediction package from the Institute of Biomedical Engineering, London. RESULTS: The crude incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma decreased from 2.2 per one million person-years in 2005 to 1.6 per one million person-years in 2015. The incidence rates remained stable over the 11-year time period after age standardization. Aging was found to have a dominant effect on the trends. The Bayesian APC model showed that the crude incidence rates would increase from 1.4 per one million person-years in 2016 to 1.9 per one million person-years in 2030, and the estimated number of new incident cases would increase to 2,775 in 2030. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) remained steady. CONCLUSIONS: In the future decade, the incidence of malignant mesothelioma may increase, but the ASR will remain stable. Considering its high degree of malignancy, malignant mesothelioma still needs to be taken seriously.