Why did air quality experience little improvement during the COVID-19 lockdown in megacities, northeast China?

To inhibit the COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) outbreak, unprecedented nationwide lockdowns were implemented in China in early 2020, resulting in a marked reduction of anthropogenic emissions. However, reasons for the insignificant improvement in air quality in megacities of northeast China, including Shenyang, Changchun, Jilin, Harbin, and Daqing, were scarcely reported. We assessed the influences of meteorological conditions and changes in emissions on air quality in the five megacities during the COVID-19 lockdown (February 2020) using the WRF-CMAQ model. Modeling results indicated that meteorology contributed a 14.7% increment in Air Quality Index (AQI) averaged over the five megacities, thus, the local unfavorable meteorology was one of the causes to yield little improved air quality. In terms of emission changes, the increase in residential emissions (+15%) accompanied by declining industry emissions (−15%) and transportation (−90%) emissions resulted in a slight AQI decrease of 3.1%, demonstrating the decrease in emissions associated with the lockdown were largely offset by the increment in residential emissions. Also, residential emissions contributed 42.3% to PM(2.5) concentration on average based on the Integrated Source Apportionment tool. These results demonstrated the key role residential emissions played in determining air quality. The findings of this study provide a scenario that helps make appropriate emission mitigation measures for improving air quality in this part of China.