Global consequences of the war in Ukraine: the last straw for (liberal) interventionism?

The interpretation of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine as a “turning point” indicates that long-established parameters of securing peace in international politics will change. This article tentatively assesses consequences of this war for the agenda of international peacebuilding and for wider interventionist practices in contemporary violent conflict settings. It is argued that the ongoing war speeds up a preexisting phase of profound order transformation that will considerably change the ways in which states manage conflicts and attempt to secure lasting peace in the international system. The article outlines how ongoing transformations already affect—and will further affect—(liberal) interventionism at different entangled scales, ranging from the global to the local. The contribution draws on recent studies of the rise and decline of global orders and interweaves them with insights from empirical peace and conflict research and critical studies of peacebuilding and interventions. It discusses the further decline of global cooperation in the wake of the Russian war against Ukraine, outlines the consequences of the rivalry between United Nations Security Council veto powers for the global agenda of peacebuilding and the conduct of peace operations, and illustrates the local consequences for specific intervention sites, in particular the negative impact of the employment of the Russian Wagner Group in Mali.