Establishment of a risk prediction model for prolonged mechanical ventilation after lung transplantation: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV), mostly defined as mechanical ventilation > 72 h after lung transplantation with or without tracheostomy, is associated with increased mortality. Nevertheless, the predictive factors of PMV after lung transplant remain unclear. The present study aimed to develop a novel scoring system to identify PMV after lung transplantation. METHODS: A total of 141 patients who underwent lung transplantation were investigated in this study. The patients were divided into PMV and non-prolonged ventilation (NPMV) groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess factors associated with PMV. A risk nomogram was then established based on the multivariate analysis, and model performance was further examined regarding its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Eight factors were finally identified to be significantly associated with PMV by the multivariate analysis and therefore were included as risk factors in the nomogram as follows: the body mass index (BMI, P = 0.036); primary diagnosis as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF, P = 0.038); pulmonary hypertension (PAH, P = 0.034); primary graft dysfunction grading (PGD, P = 0.011) at T(0); cold ischemia time (CIT P = 0.012); and three ventilation parameters (peak inspiratory pressure [PIP, P < 0.001], dynamic compliance [Cdyn, P = 0.001], and P/F ratio [P = 0.015]) at T(0). The nomogram exhibited superior discrimination ability with an area under the curve of 0.895. Furthermore, both calibration curve and decision-curve analysis indicated satisfactory performance. CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram to predict individual risk of receiving PMV for patients after lung transplantation was established, which may guide preventative measures for tackling this adverse event. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-023-02307-9.