Predictors of educational failure at 16 and 19 years of age—SESBiC longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Educational attainment is highly associated with future health and independence. Throughout childhood, children are exposed to factors that may promote educational attainment and factors that may be associated with a reduced likelihood of being able to complete their education. The purpose of the current study was to investigate which factors, measured from birth up to finishing upper secondary school, were associated with a lower mean grade point average from lower and upper secondary school as well as eligibility to upper secondary school and college/university. METHODS: This is a longitudinal study on 1723 children born in 1995/1996 who have been followed until they were 20 years old. Information with respect to maternal sociodemographics, maternal stress factors during pregnancy and childhood, birth characteristics of the child, child behavior at 3 and 12 years of age, and mean grade point average from lower and upper secondary school, including eligibility to upper secondary school and college/university was collected. RESULTS: Children exhibiting high problems scores on the child behavior checklist at 12 years of age and children or having other living arrangements (e.g. foster parents or institutional care) were less likely to fulfill the requirements for upper secondary school (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.17–0.71 and OR = 0.33 95% CI = 0.17–0.65, respectively). The likelihood of fulfilling the requirements to college/university was lower if the child had divorced parents at three years of age (OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.16–0.58) and exhibited externalizing problems at 12 years of age (OR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.24–0.86) and if the mother had experienced high level of stress at (OR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.14–0.77). CONCLUSION: Identifying mothers with high level of stressors as well as children with externalizing behaviour problems to provide guidance and support is very important as these two factors appear to be associated with future study performance in both lower and upper secondary school.