From Empire-wide integration to regional localization: A synthetic and quantitative study of heterogeneous amphora data in Roman Germania reveals centuries-long change in regional patterns of production and consumption

We present novel insights into trade in amphorae-borne products over a 550-year period in Germania along the frontier of the Roman Empire, derived through probabilistic aoristic methods to study temporal changes in archaeological materials. Our data analysis reveals highly detailed differential patterns of consumption and production within the German market. We show how connections to far-flung regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean or the Iberian Peninsula wax and wane through time, and how the local German producers start to compete with these imported products. These chronological patterns provide important insight into a regional market within the larger Roman economy and provide an important case study in changing economic connections over a long period, demonstrating in a transparent and reproducible way a geographical and chronological pulsation in market activity that was otherwise unknown and undemonstrated.