Oxygenation index in the first three weeks of life is a predictor of bronchopulmonary dysplasia grade in very preterm infants

BACKGROUND: The new bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) grading system was developed based on its correlation with long-term respiratory and neurodevelopmental outcomes and may provide better personalized prognostication. Identifying early-life predictors for accurate BPD grade prediction may allow interventions to be tailored to individual needs. This study aimed to assess whether oxygenation index (OI) dynamics in the first three weeks of life are a predictor of BPD grade. METHODS: A single-center retrospective study was performed. Generalized additive mixed modeling was used to model OI trajectories for each BPD grade subgroup. A multinomial regression model was then developed to quantify the association between OI dynamics and BPD grade. RESULTS: Two hundred fifty-four infants were identified for inclusion in the trajectory modeling. A total of 6,243 OI data points were available for modeling. OI trajectory estimates showed distinct patterns in the three groups, most prominent during the third week of life. The average daily OI change was -0.33 ± 0.52 (n = 85) in the No-BPD group, -0.04 ± 0.75 (n = 82) in the Low-Grade BPD group, and 0.22 ± 0.65 (n = 75) in the High-Grade BPD group (p < 0.001). A multinomial regression analysis showed the initial OI value and the average daily OI change both independently correlated with BPD grade outcomes after adjusting for birth gestation, birth weight z-score, sex, and the duration of invasive ventilation. CONCLUSION: Early-life OI dynamics may be a useful independent marker for BPD grade prediction. Prospective studies may be warranted to further validate the findings. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-023-03835-3.