Cargando…
A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang
In this paper, we separately constructed ARIMA, ARIMAX, and RNN models to determine whether there exists an impact of the air pollutants (such as PM(2.5), PM(10), CO, O(3), NO(2), and SO(2)) on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases from January 2014 to December 2018 in Urumqi, Xinjiang. In addi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2023
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9844834/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36649267 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277314 |
_version_ | 1784870743335501824 |
---|---|
author | Wang, Yingdan Gao, Chunjie Zhao, Tiantian Jiao, Haiyan Liao, Ying Hu, Zengyun Wang, Lei |
author_facet | Wang, Yingdan Gao, Chunjie Zhao, Tiantian Jiao, Haiyan Liao, Ying Hu, Zengyun Wang, Lei |
author_sort | Wang, Yingdan |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this paper, we separately constructed ARIMA, ARIMAX, and RNN models to determine whether there exists an impact of the air pollutants (such as PM(2.5), PM(10), CO, O(3), NO(2), and SO(2)) on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases from January 2014 to December 2018 in Urumqi, Xinjiang. In addition, by using a new comprehensive evaluation index DISO to compare the performance of three models, it was demonstrated that ARIMAX (1,1,2) × (0,1,1)(12) + PM(2.5) (lag = 12) model was the optimal one, which was applied to predict the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi from January 2019 to December 2019. The predicting results were in good agreement with the actual pulmonary tuberculosis cases and shown that pulmonary tuberculosis cases obviously declined, which indicated that the policies of environmental protection and universal health checkups in Urumqi have been very effective in recent years. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9844834 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-98448342023-01-18 A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang Wang, Yingdan Gao, Chunjie Zhao, Tiantian Jiao, Haiyan Liao, Ying Hu, Zengyun Wang, Lei PLoS One Research Article In this paper, we separately constructed ARIMA, ARIMAX, and RNN models to determine whether there exists an impact of the air pollutants (such as PM(2.5), PM(10), CO, O(3), NO(2), and SO(2)) on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases from January 2014 to December 2018 in Urumqi, Xinjiang. In addition, by using a new comprehensive evaluation index DISO to compare the performance of three models, it was demonstrated that ARIMAX (1,1,2) × (0,1,1)(12) + PM(2.5) (lag = 12) model was the optimal one, which was applied to predict the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi from January 2019 to December 2019. The predicting results were in good agreement with the actual pulmonary tuberculosis cases and shown that pulmonary tuberculosis cases obviously declined, which indicated that the policies of environmental protection and universal health checkups in Urumqi have been very effective in recent years. Public Library of Science 2023-01-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9844834/ /pubmed/36649267 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277314 Text en © 2023 Wang et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Wang, Yingdan Gao, Chunjie Zhao, Tiantian Jiao, Haiyan Liao, Ying Hu, Zengyun Wang, Lei A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang |
title | A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang |
title_full | A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang |
title_fullStr | A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang |
title_full_unstemmed | A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang |
title_short | A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang |
title_sort | comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in urumqi, xinjiang |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9844834/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36649267 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277314 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT wangyingdan acomparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT gaochunjie acomparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT zhaotiantian acomparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT jiaohaiyan acomparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT liaoying acomparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT huzengyun acomparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT wanglei acomparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT wangyingdan comparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT gaochunjie comparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT zhaotiantian comparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT jiaohaiyan comparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT liaoying comparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT huzengyun comparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang AT wanglei comparativestudyofthreemodelstoanalyzetheimpactofairpollutantsonthenumberofpulmonarytuberculosiscasesinurumqixinjiang |