Disease burden and attributable risk factors of neonatal disorders and their specific causes in China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2024

BACKGROUND: Neonatal health is a cornerstone for the healthy development of the next generation and a driving force for the progress of population and society in the future. Updated information on the burden of neonatal disorders (NDs) are of great importance for evidence-based health care planning in China, whereas such an estimate has been lacking at national level. This study aims to estimate the temporal trends and the attributable burdens of selected risk factors of NDs and their specific causes in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the possible trends between 2020 and 2024. METHODS: Data was explored from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. Six measures were used: incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. The specific causes of NDs mainly included neonatal preterm birth (NPB), neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma (NE), neonatal sepsis and other neonatal infections (NS), and hemolytic disease and other neonatal jaundice (HD). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast disease burden from 2020 to 2024. RESULTS: There were notable decreasing trends in the number of deaths (84.3%), incidence (30.3%), DALYs (73.5%) and YLLs (84.3%), while increasing trends in the number of prevalence (102.3%) and YLDs (172.7%) from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The corresponding age-standardized rates changed by -74.9%, 0.1%, -65.8%, -74.9%, 86.8% and 155.1%, respectively. Four specific causes of NDs followed some similar and different patterns. The prediction results of the ARIMA model shown that all measures still maintained the original trends in the next five years. Low birth weight, short gestation, ambient particulate matter pollution and household air pollution from solid fuels were the four leading risk factors. CONCLUSION: The health burden due to NDs is declining and is likely to continue to decline in the future in China. Delaying the increasing burden of disability may be the next target of concern. Targeted prevention and control strategies for specific causes of NDs are urgently needed to reduce the disease burden. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15050-x.