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Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with short-term postoperative complications in patients with gastrointestinal cancer and develop and validate prediction models to predict the probability of complications. METHODS: A total of 335 patients enrolled in the primary cohort of this study were...

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Autores principales: Cui, Hongming, Zhao, Dawei, Jian, Jingren, Zhang, Yifei, Jian, Mi, Yu, Bin, Hu, Jinchen, Li, Yanbao, Han, Xiaoli, Jiang, Lixin, Wang, Xixun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9845637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36684321
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.1003525
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author Cui, Hongming
Zhao, Dawei
Jian, Jingren
Zhang, Yifei
Jian, Mi
Yu, Bin
Hu, Jinchen
Li, Yanbao
Han, Xiaoli
Jiang, Lixin
Wang, Xixun
author_facet Cui, Hongming
Zhao, Dawei
Jian, Jingren
Zhang, Yifei
Jian, Mi
Yu, Bin
Hu, Jinchen
Li, Yanbao
Han, Xiaoli
Jiang, Lixin
Wang, Xixun
author_sort Cui, Hongming
collection PubMed
description PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with short-term postoperative complications in patients with gastrointestinal cancer and develop and validate prediction models to predict the probability of complications. METHODS: A total of 335 patients enrolled in the primary cohort of this study were divided into training and validation sets in a chronological order. Using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, the risk factors for postoperative complications were determined, and nomogram prediction models were constructed. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to the receiver operator characteristic and calibration curves. RESULTS: Patients with complications had a stronger postoperative stress response and a longer duration of daily fluid intake/output ratio >1 after surgery. Logistic analysis revealed that body mass index (BMI), body temperature on POD4 (T.POD4), neutrophil percentage on POD4 (N.POD4), fasting blood glucose on POD4 (FBG.POD4), and the presence of fluid intake/output ratio <1 within POD4 were risk factors for POD7 complications, and that BMI, T.POD7, N.POD7, FBG.POD4, FBG.POD7, and the duration of daily fluid intake/output ratio >1 were risk factors for POD30 complications. The areas under the curve of Nomogram-A for POD7 complications were 0.867 and 0.833 and those of Nomogram-B for POD30 complications were 0.920 and 0.918 in the primary and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves showed good consistency in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: This study presented two nomogram models to predict short-term postoperative complications in patients with gastrointestinal cancer. The results could help clinicians identify patients at high risk of complications within POD7 or POD30.
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spelling pubmed-98456372023-01-19 Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery Cui, Hongming Zhao, Dawei Jian, Jingren Zhang, Yifei Jian, Mi Yu, Bin Hu, Jinchen Li, Yanbao Han, Xiaoli Jiang, Lixin Wang, Xixun Front Surg Surgery PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with short-term postoperative complications in patients with gastrointestinal cancer and develop and validate prediction models to predict the probability of complications. METHODS: A total of 335 patients enrolled in the primary cohort of this study were divided into training and validation sets in a chronological order. Using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, the risk factors for postoperative complications were determined, and nomogram prediction models were constructed. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to the receiver operator characteristic and calibration curves. RESULTS: Patients with complications had a stronger postoperative stress response and a longer duration of daily fluid intake/output ratio >1 after surgery. Logistic analysis revealed that body mass index (BMI), body temperature on POD4 (T.POD4), neutrophil percentage on POD4 (N.POD4), fasting blood glucose on POD4 (FBG.POD4), and the presence of fluid intake/output ratio <1 within POD4 were risk factors for POD7 complications, and that BMI, T.POD7, N.POD7, FBG.POD4, FBG.POD7, and the duration of daily fluid intake/output ratio >1 were risk factors for POD30 complications. The areas under the curve of Nomogram-A for POD7 complications were 0.867 and 0.833 and those of Nomogram-B for POD30 complications were 0.920 and 0.918 in the primary and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves showed good consistency in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: This study presented two nomogram models to predict short-term postoperative complications in patients with gastrointestinal cancer. The results could help clinicians identify patients at high risk of complications within POD7 or POD30. Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-01-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9845637/ /pubmed/36684321 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.1003525 Text en © 2023 Cui, Zhao, Jian, Zhang, Jian, Yu, Hu, Li, Han, Jiang and Wang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Surgery
Cui, Hongming
Zhao, Dawei
Jian, Jingren
Zhang, Yifei
Jian, Mi
Yu, Bin
Hu, Jinchen
Li, Yanbao
Han, Xiaoli
Jiang, Lixin
Wang, Xixun
Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery
title Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery
title_full Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery
title_fullStr Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery
title_full_unstemmed Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery
title_short Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery
title_sort risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models for short-term postoperative complications in patients undergoing gastrointestinal tract surgery
topic Surgery
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9845637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36684321
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.1003525
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