Correlation between lung cancer probability and number of pulmonary nodules in baseline computed tomography lung cancer screening: A retrospective study based on the Chinese population

BACKGROUND: Screening for lung cancer with LDCT detects a large number of nodules. However, it is unclear whether nodule number influences lung cancer probability. This study aimed to acquire deeply insight into the distribution characteristics of nodule number in the Chinese population and to reveal the association between the nodule number and the probability of lung cancer (LC). METHODS: 10,167 asymptomatic participants who underwent LDCT LC screening were collected. Noncalcified nodules larger than 4 mm were included. The nodule number per participant was determined. We defined five categories according to the number of nodules (based on nodule type and size): one, two, three, four, and more than four nodules. We stratified the nodules as groups A, B, and C and participants as Amax, Bmax, and Cmax groups, and explored the association between nodule number and the probability of LC on nodule and participant levels. RESULTS: 97 participants were confirmed to have LC. The probabilities of LC were 49/1719, 22/689, 11/327, 6/166, and 9/175 in participants with one, two, three, four, and more than four nodules (p>0.05), respectively. In the Bmax group, the probability of LC was significantly higher in participants with one nodule than those with >4 nodules (p<0.05), and the probability of LC showed a negative linear trend with increasing nodule numbers (p<0.05). Based on the nodule-level analyses, in Group B, LC probability was significantly higher when participants had a solitary nodule than when they had >4 nodules (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: LC probability does not significantly change with the number of nodules. However, when stratified by the nodule size, the effect of nodule number on LC probability was nodule-size dependent, and greater attention and active follow-up are required for solitary nodules especially SNs/solid component of PSNs measuring 6-15 mm or NSNs measuring 8-15 mm. Assessing the nodule number in conjunction with nodule size in baseline LDCT LC screening is considered beneficial.