A clinical prediction model for predicting the risk of liver metastasis from renal cell carcinoma based on machine learning

BACKGROUND: Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is a highly metastatic urological cancer. RCC with liver metastasis (LM) carries a dismal prognosis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning (ML) model that predicts the risk of RCC with LM, which is used to assist clinical treatment. METHODS: The retrospective study data of 42,547 patients with RCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. ML includes algorithmic methods and is a fast-rising field that has been widely used in the biomedical field. Logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and naive Bayesian model [Naive Bayes Classifier (NBC)] were applied to develop prediction models to predict the risk of RCC with LM. The six models were 10-fold cross-validated, and the best-performing model was selected based on the area under the curve (AUC) value. A web online calculator was constructed based on the best ML model. RESULTS: Bone metastasis, lung metastasis, grade, T stage, N stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors for the development of RCC with LM by multivariate regression analysis. In addition, the correlation of the relative proportions of the six clinical variables was shown by a heat map. In the prediction models of RCC with LM, the mean AUC of the XGB model among the six ML algorithms was 0.947. Based on the XGB model, the web calculator (https://share.streamlit.io/liuwencai4/renal_liver/main/renal_liver.py) was developed to evaluate the risk of RCC with LM. CONCLUSIONS: This XGB model has the best predictive effect on RCC with LM. The web calculator constructed based on the XGB model has great potential for clinicians to make clinical decisions and improve the prognosis of RCC patients with LM.