Retinal nerve fiber layer thinning as a novel fingerprint for cardiovascular events: results from the prospective cohorts in UK and China

BACKGROUND: Retinal structural abnormalities have been found to serve as biomarkers for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the association between retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and the incidence of CVD events remains inconclusive, and relevant longitudinal studies are lacking. Therefore, we aimed to examine this link in two prospective cohort studies. METHODS: A total of 25,563 participants from UK Biobank who were initially free of CVD were included in the current study. Another 635 participants without retinopathy at baseline from the Chinese Guangzhou Diabetes Eye Study (GDES) were adopted as the validation set. Measurements of RNFL thickness in the macular (UK Biobank) and peripapillary (GDES) regions were obtained from optical coherence tomography (OCT). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), odd ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to quantify CVD risk. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 7.67 years, 1281 (5.01%) participants in UK Biobank developed CVD events. Each 5-μm decrease in macular RNFL thickness was associated with an 8% increase in incident CVD risk (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01–1.17, p = 0.033). Compared with participants in the highest tertile of RNFL thickness, the risk of incident CVD was significantly increased in participants in the lowest thickness tertile (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01–1.38, p = 0.036). In GDES, 29 (4.57%) patients developed CVD events within 3 years. Lower average peripapillary RNFL thickness was also associated with a higher CVD risk (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.11–1.65, p = 0.003). The additive net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 21.8%, and the absolute NRI was 2.0% by addition of RNFL thickness over the Framingham risk score. Of 29 patients with incident CVD, 7 were correctly reclassified to a higher risk category while 1 was reclassified to a lower category, and 21 high risk patients were not reclassified. CONCLUSIONS: RNFL thinning was independently associated with increased incident cardiovascular risk and improved reclassification capability, indicating RNFL thickness derived from the non-invasive OCT as a potential retinal fingerprint for CVD event across ethnicities and health conditions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 15853192 SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-023-02728-7.