Ethnic inequalities in the impact of COVID-19 on primary care consultations: a time series analysis of 460,084 individuals with multimorbidity in South London

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused rapid changes in primary care delivery in the UK, with concerns that certain groups of the population may have faced increased barriers to access. This study assesses the impact of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care consultations for individuals with multimorbidity and identifies ethnic inequalities. METHODS: A longitudinal study based on monthly data from primary care health records of 460,084 patients aged ≥18 years from 41 GP practices in South London, from February 2018 to March 2021. Descriptive analysis and interrupted time series (ITS) models were used to analyse the effect of the pandemic on primary care consultations for people with multimorbidity and to identify if the effect varied by ethnic groups and consultation type. RESULTS: Individuals with multimorbidity experienced a smaller initial fall in trend at the start of the pandemic. Their primary care consultation rates remained stable (879 (95% CI 869–890) per 1000 patients in February to 882 (870–894) March 2020), compared with a 7% decline among people without multimorbidity (223 consultations (95% CI 221–226) to 208 (205–210)). The gap in consultations between the two groups reduced after July 2020. The effect among individuals with multimorbidity varied by ethnic group. Ethnic minority groups experienced a slightly larger fall at the start of the pandemic. Individuals of Black, Asian, and Other ethnic backgrounds also switched from face-to-face to telephone at a higher rate than other ethnic groups. The largest fall in face-to-face consultations was observed among people from Asian backgrounds (their consultation rates declined from 676 (659–693) in February to 348 (338–359) in April 2020), which may have disproportionately affected their quality of care. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected primary care utilisation in patients with multimorbidity. While there is evidence of a successful needs-based prioritisation of multimorbidity patients within primary care at the start of the pandemic, inequalities among ethnic minority groups were found. Strengthening disease management for these groups may be necessary to control widening inequalities in future health outcomes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02720-7.