Longitudinal changes in vitamin D concentrations and the association with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the Tromsø Study

AIM: We aimed to investigate the relationship between pre- and post-diagnostic 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) over a period of 30 years in individuals who developed T2DM compared to healthy controls. METHODS: This case–control study included 254 participants with blood samples collected at five different time-points (T1–T5) between 1986 and 2016. Of the 254 participants, 116 were diagnosed with T2DM between T3 and T4, and were considered cases; the remaining 138 were controls. Linear mixed regression models were used to examine pre- and post-diagnostic changes in 25(OH)D concentrations, and logistic regression was used to examine associations between these concentrations and T2DM at each time-point. RESULTS: 25(OH)D concentrations at different time-points and the longitudinal change in concentrations differed between cases and controls, and by sex. For women, each 5-nmol/l increase in 25(OH)D concentrations was inversely associated with T2DM at T3 (odds-ratio, OR, 0.79), whereas for men, this same increase was positively associated with T2DM at T1 (OR 1.12). Cases experienced a significant decrease in pre-diagnostic 25(OH)D concentrations (p value < 0.01 for women, p value = 0.02 for men) and a significant increase in post-diagnostic 25(OH)D concentrations (p value < 0.01 for women, p value = 0.01 for men). As such, each 1-unit increase in month-specific z-score change between T1 and T3 was significantly inversely associated with T2DM (OR 0.51 for women, OR 0.52 for men), and each such increase between T3 and T5 was significantly positively associated with T2DM in women (OR 2.48). CONCLUSIONS: 25(OH)D concentrations seem to be affected by disease progression and type 2 diabetes diagnosis. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00592-022-02001-y.