Machine learning for predicting the treatment effect of orthokeratology in children

PURPOSE: Myopia treatment using orthokeratology (ortho-k) slows myopia progression. However, it is not equally effective in all patients. We aimed to predict the treatment effect of ortho-k using a machine-learning-assisted (ML) prediction model. METHODS: Of the 119 patients who started ortho-k treatment between January 1, 2019, and January 1, 2022, 91 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the model. Ocular parameters and clinical characteristics were collected. A logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select factors associated with the treatment effect. RESULTS: Age, baseline axial length, pupil diameter, lens wearing time, time spent outdoors, time spent on near work, white-to-white distance, anterior corneal flat keratometry, and posterior corneal astigmatism were selected in the model (aera under curve: 0.949). The decision curve analysis showed beneficial effects. The C-statistic of the predictive model was 0.821 (95% CI: 0.815, 0.827). CONCLUSION: Ocular parameters and clinical characteristics were used to predict the treatment effect of ortho-k. This ML-assisted model may assist ophthalmologists in making clinical decisions for patients, improving myopia control, and predicting the clinical effect of ortho-k treatment via a retrospective non-intervention trial.