Evaluation of race/ethnicity-specific survival machine learning models for Hispanic and Black patients with breast cancer

OBJECTIVES: Survival machine learning (ML) has been suggested as a useful approach for forecasting future events, but a growing concern exists that ML models have the potential to cause racial disparities through the data used to train them. This study aims to develop race/ethnicity-specific survival ML models for Hispanic and black women diagnosed with breast cancer to examine whether race/ethnicity-specific ML models outperform the general models trained with all races/ethnicity data. METHODS: We used the data from the US National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results programme registries. We developed the Hispanic-specific and black-specific models and compared them with the general model using the Cox proportional-hazards model, Gradient Boost Tree, survival tree and survival support vector machine. RESULTS: A total of 322 348 female patients who had breast cancer diagnoses between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2017 were identified. The race/ethnicity-specific models for Hispanic and black women consistently outperformed the general model when predicting the outcomes of specific race/ethnicity. DISCUSSION: Accurately predicting the survival outcome of a patient is critical in determining treatment options and providing appropriate cancer care. The high-performing models developed in this study can contribute to providing individualised oncology care and improving the survival outcome of black and Hispanic women. CONCLUSION: Predicting the individualised survival outcome of breast cancer can provide the evidence necessary for determining treatment options and high-quality, patient-centred cancer care delivery for under-represented populations. Also, the race/ethnicity-specific ML models can mitigate representation bias and contribute to addressing health disparities.