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Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities
It becomes challenging to identify feasible control strategies for simultaneously relaxing the countermeasures and containing the Covid-19 pandemic, given China’s huge population size, high susceptibility, persist vaccination waning, and relatively weak strength of health systems. We propose a novel...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V.
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9854248/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36694593 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2023.01.017 |
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author | Li, Tangjuan Xiao, Yanni |
author_facet | Li, Tangjuan Xiao, Yanni |
author_sort | Li, Tangjuan |
collection | PubMed |
description | It becomes challenging to identify feasible control strategies for simultaneously relaxing the countermeasures and containing the Covid-19 pandemic, given China’s huge population size, high susceptibility, persist vaccination waning, and relatively weak strength of health systems. We propose a novel mathematical model with waning of immunity and solve the optimal control problem, in order to provide an insight on how much detecting and social distancing are required to coordinate socio-economic activities and epidemic control. We obtain the optimal intensity of countermeasures, i.e., the dynamic nucleic acid screening and social distancing, under which the health system is functioning normally and people can engage in a certain level of socio-economic activities. We find that it is the isolation capacity or the restriction of the case fatality rate (CFR) rather than the hospital capacity that mainly determines the optimal strategies. And the solved optimal controls under quarterly CFR restrictions exhibit oscillations. It is worth noticing that, if without considering booster or very low booster rate, the optimal strategy is a “on–off” mode, alternating between lock down and opening with certain social distancing, which reflects the importance and necessity of China’s static management on a certain area during Covid-19 outbreak. The findings suggest some feasible paths to smoothly transit from the Covid-19 pandemic to an endemic phase. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9854248 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-98542482023-01-20 Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities Li, Tangjuan Xiao, Yanni Math Comput Simul Original Articles It becomes challenging to identify feasible control strategies for simultaneously relaxing the countermeasures and containing the Covid-19 pandemic, given China’s huge population size, high susceptibility, persist vaccination waning, and relatively weak strength of health systems. We propose a novel mathematical model with waning of immunity and solve the optimal control problem, in order to provide an insight on how much detecting and social distancing are required to coordinate socio-economic activities and epidemic control. We obtain the optimal intensity of countermeasures, i.e., the dynamic nucleic acid screening and social distancing, under which the health system is functioning normally and people can engage in a certain level of socio-economic activities. We find that it is the isolation capacity or the restriction of the case fatality rate (CFR) rather than the hospital capacity that mainly determines the optimal strategies. And the solved optimal controls under quarterly CFR restrictions exhibit oscillations. It is worth noticing that, if without considering booster or very low booster rate, the optimal strategy is a “on–off” mode, alternating between lock down and opening with certain social distancing, which reflects the importance and necessity of China’s static management on a certain area during Covid-19 outbreak. The findings suggest some feasible paths to smoothly transit from the Covid-19 pandemic to an endemic phase. International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2023-05 2023-01-20 /pmc/articles/PMC9854248/ /pubmed/36694593 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2023.01.017 Text en © 2023 International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Original Articles Li, Tangjuan Xiao, Yanni Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities |
title | Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities |
title_full | Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities |
title_fullStr | Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities |
title_full_unstemmed | Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities |
title_short | Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities |
title_sort | optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities |
topic | Original Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9854248/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36694593 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2023.01.017 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT litangjuan optimalstrategiesforcoordinatinginfectioncontrolandsocioeconomicactivities AT xiaoyanni optimalstrategiesforcoordinatinginfectioncontrolandsocioeconomicactivities |