Simulating Hunting Effects on the Wild Boar Population and African Swine Fever Expansion Using Agent-Based Modeling

SIMPLE SUMMARY: African swine fever (ASF) has caused significant damage to wildlife and domestic pig production. Since the first confirmed case in South Korea, the number of infected wild boars has continued to increase despite various management operations. Hence, this study developed the ASF expansion model based on an agent-based modeling approach to simulate management strategies for assessing the effective control of ASF. In our model, the agents’ (wild boars) behavior and daily movement range based on their ecological and behavioral characteristics by applying annual hunting scenarios from the past three years (2019.09–2022.08). Our results represented that the higher the hunting intensity, the smaller the ASF expansion area (24,987 km(2) at 0% annual hunting rate; 3533 km(2) at 70%). Furthermore, the complete removal of agents during the simulation period was shown to be possible through the annual hunting rate above 70%. In conclusion, an annual hunting intensity of 70% is needed to control ASF effectively. ABSTRACT: African swine fever (ASF) is a viral hemorrhagic fever fatal to animals of the Suidae family. It has spread from Africa to Europe and Asia, causing significant damage to wildlife and domesticated pig production. Since the first confirmed case in South Korea in September 2019, the number of infected wild boars has continued to increase, despite quarantine fences and hunting operations. Hence, new strategies are needed for the effective control of ASF. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to estimate the ASF expansion area and the efficacy of infection control strategies. In addition, we simulated the agents’ (wild boars) behavior and daily movement range based on their ecological and behavioral characteristics, by applying annual hunting scenarios from past three years (2019.09–2022.08). The results of the simulation based on the annual changes in the number of infected agents and the ASF expansion area showed that the higher the hunting intensity, the smaller the expansion area (24,987 km(2) at 0% vs. 3533 km(2) at 70%); a hunting intensity exceeding 70% minimally affected the expansion area. A complete removal of agents during the simulation period was shown to be possible. In conclusion, an annual hunting intensity of 70% should be maintained to effectively control ASF.