Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of Parthenium hysterophorus around the World and in South Korea

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Parthenium hysterophorus is one of the most noxious invasive weeds in the world. In this study, a species distribution model of P. hysterophorus was established using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach. According to the model, climate change would likely increase the habitat suitability for P. hysterophorus across the world. Estimation of mean habitat suitability revealed that 21 countries including Bulgaria, Brunei, China, Netherlands, New Zealand, and South Korea, currently in the low habitat suitability category, would transition into the moderate to very high suitability category by 2081–2100. In South Korea, climate change would increase the habitat suitability for P. hysterophorus, especially in the southern region of the country, which would be followed by spontaneous expansion towards the northern region, thus seriously threatening agriculture, native biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the national economy. Therefore, regular monitoring is required to perform to prevent further habitat expansion of P. hysterophorus in South Korea. ABSTRACT: The global climate change, including increases in temperature and precipitation, may exacerbate the invasion by P. hysterophorus. Here, MaxEnt modeling was performed to predict P. hysterophorus distribution worldwide and in South Korea under the current and future climate global climate changes, including increases in temperature and precipitation. Under the current climate, P. hysterophorus was estimated to occupy 91.26%, 83.26%, and 62.75% of the total land area of Australia, South America, and Oceania, respectively. However, under future climate scenarios, the habitat distribution of P. hysterophorus would show the greatest change in Europe (56.65%) and would extend up to 65°N by 2081–2100 in South Korea, P. hysterophorus currently potentially colonizing 2.24% of the land area, particularly in six administrative divisions. In the future, P. hysterophorus would spread rapidly, colonizing all administrative divisions, except Incheon, by 2081–2100. Additionally, the southern and central regions of South Korea showed greater habitat suitability than the northern region. These findings suggest that future climate change will increase P. hysterophorus distribution both globally and locally. Therefore, effective control and management strategies should be employed around the world and in South Korea to restrict the habitat expansion of P. hysterophorus.