Associations between temperature variations and tourist arrivals: analysis based on Baidu Index of hot-spring tourism in 44 cities in China

Hot-spring tourism refers to entertainment, health preservation, commercial conferences, and other leisure activities at hot-spring locations. This tourism often shows periodic variability, which may be due to seasonal temperature variations. However, studies on the effects of temperature variations on tourist arrivals at hot springs are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate this relationship in 31 provincial capital cities and 13 s-tier cities in China. Using the Baidu Index, we obtained data for tourist arrivals to hot springs in each city and constructed a generalised additive model to explore the associations between temperature variations and tourist arrivals. We also analysed the statistical significance of the estimated effects during different seasons to explore potential effect modification. A 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 1.81% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69–1.93) decrease in daily tourist arrivals for hot-spring tourism. Significant positive associations between the abovementioned factors were observed in summer (2.18% change, 95% CI: 1.32–3.04). The effect of temperature on the volume of tourist arrivals may last for approximately 2 months. Robustness analysis confirmed the data reliability. The results indicate that significant relationships exist between temperature variations and hot-spring tourism arrivals, which vary seasonally. This study has significant implications for travel agencies to effectively manage tourist visits to hot spring locations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-023-25404-y.