Prognostic factors for favorable outcomes after veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in critical care patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND: Patients with COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory failure may require veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV ECMO). Yet, this procedure is resource-intensive and high mortality rates have been reported. Thus, predictors for identifying patients who will benefit from VV ECMO would be helpful. METHODS: This retrospective study included 129 patients with COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory failure, who had received VV ECMO at the University Medical Center Regensburg, Germany, between 1 March 2020 and 31 December 2021. Patient-specific factors and relevant intensive-care parameters at the time of the decision to start VV ECMO were investigated regarding their value as predictors of patient survival. In addition, the intensive-care course of the first 10 days of VV ECMO was compared between survivors and patients who had died in the intensive care unit. RESULTS: The most important parameters for predicting outcome were patient age and platelet count, which differed significantly between survivors and non-survivors (age: 52.6±8.1 vs. 57.4±10.1 years, p<0.001; platelet count before VV ECMO: 321.3±132.2 vs. 262.0±121.0 /nL, p = 0.006; average on day 10: 199.2±88.0 vs. 147.1±57.9 /nL, p = 0.002). A linear regression model derived from parameters collected before the start of VV ECMO only included age and platelet count. Patients were divided into two groups by using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis: group 1: 78% of patients, mortality 26%; group 2: 22% of patients, mortality 75%. A second linear regression model included average blood pH, minimum paO2, and average pump flow on day 10 of VV ECMO in addition to age and platelet count. The ROC curve resulted in two cut-off values and thus in three groups: group 1: 25% of patients, mortality 93%; group 2: 45% of patients, mortality 31%; group 3: 30% of patients, mortality 0%.