Effective Conditions for Achieving Carbon Unlocking Targets for Transport Infrastructure Development—Joint Analysis Based on PLS-SEM and NCA

It is important to investigate how to achieve carbon unlocking in the transport sector, especially in transport infrastructure, in order to contribute to the achievement of carbon neutrality targets and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to investigate the necessary and sufficient conditions to achieve carbon unlocking in transport infrastructure. To achieve this, a combination of partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and necessary condition analysis (NCA) methods have been used to examine whether there are unidentified necessity factors beyond the currently recognized ‘technology-in-institution’ (TIC) lock-in. This study also explores how the carbon unlocking of transport infrastructure can be achieved through the unlocking of relevant factors. The study includes 366 points from a subjective questionnaire from the government, transport infrastructure researchers, and relevant businesspeople. We found that, at the adequacy level, achieving institutional and technological unlocking is sufficient and economic factors have little impact on transport infrastructure (0.06), and that institutional and technical factors have a large impact on carbon unlocking (0.453, 0.280); however, from the necessary point of view, carbon unlocking at the economic level is necessary to achieve the goal of a medium to high level of carbon unlocking. To achieve carbon unlocking at this level (over 50%), a combination of technological, institutional, and economic factors is required. To achieve full carbon unlocking, the technology, system, and economy need to be at least 0.533, 0.791, and 0.63 unlocked. Therefore, we can conclude that by using the joint analysis of PLS-SEM and NCA, we have achieved an extension of the traditional TIC and identified sufficient and necessary conditions to achieve a medium to high degree of carbon unlocking.