Commercial dynamics in urban China during the COVID-19 recession: Vulnerability and short-term adaptation of commercial centers in Shanghai

Studying the commercial dynamics during the COVID-19 recession could help deepen our understanding of how the pandemic damages the commercial economy and how to against the pandemic. This study aims to explore the vulnerability and adaptation of commercial centers using a weekly consumption data of UnionPay cards in Shanghai. A vulnerability index and multiscale geographically weighted regressions (MGWR) are employed. Our results suggest that retail, leisure, and entertainment sectors are less vulnerable to the pandemic at the early stage, when catering, life service, and wholesale sectors are more influenced. Catering, life service, and wholesale sectors were better adapted to the second wave of the pandemic, while the retail and entertainment sectors were even more vulnerable. Further analysis using MGWR models suggests that the commercial centers with higher consumption volume are better adapted to the shock. The diversity of commercial sectors mainly reduces low-level commercial centers' vulnerability to the pandemic. The commercial centers targeting high-end consumers with wider hinterland were less adapted to the pandemic. These research outcomes reveal the disparities in commercial centers' vulnerability against COVID-19 and highlight adaptation's role during the pandemic.