Proposed prognostic subgroups and facilitated clinical decision-making for additional locoregional radiotherapy in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a retrospective study based on recursive partitioning analysis

BACKGROUND: The high heterogeneity of de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (dmNPC) makes its prognosis and treatment challenging. We aimed to accurately stage dmNPC and assess the patterns of treatment strategies for different risk groups. METHODS: The study enrolled a total of 562 patients, 264 from 2007 to 2013 in the training cohort and 298 from 2014 to 2017 in the validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to determine the independent variables for overall survival (OS). Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was applied to establish a novel risk-stratifying model based on these variables. RESULTS: After pairwise comparisons of OS, three risk groups were generated: low-risk (involved lesions ≤ 4 without liver involvement), intermediate-risk (involved lesions ≤ 4 with liver involvement or involved lesions > 4 with Epstein–Barr virus (EBV)-DNA < 62,000 copies/ml), and high-risk (involved lesions > 4 with EBV-DNA > 62,000 copies/ml). The 3-year OS rate differed significantly between groups (80.4%, 42.0%, and 20.4%, respectively, all P < 0.05). Adding locoregional intensity-modulated radiotherapy (LRRT) followed by palliative chemotherapy (PCT) resulted in a significant OS benefit over PCT alone for the low- and intermediate-risk groups (P = 0.0032 and P = 0.0014, respectively). However, it provided no survival benefits for the high-risk group (P = 0.6). Patients did not benefit from concurrent chemotherapy during LRRT among the three subgroups (P = 0.12, P = 0.13, and P = 0.3, respectively). These results were confirmed with the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The novel RPA model revealed superior survival performance in subgroup stratification and could facilitate more effective treatment strategies for dmNPC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13014-022-02168-2.