Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Phoracantha semipunctata is the worst forestry pest worldwide. It has spread to more than 30 countries or regions where eucalyptus species have been planted, damaging the eucalyptus species, thereby causing huge economic losses. It was also the quarantine pest for the European Plant Protection Organization and China. In our study, based on 865 global occurrence records of P. semipunctata and 10 environmental variables, the potential global geographical distributions of P. semipunctata were predicted by the ensemble model. Our findings showed that the potential global geographical distributions of P. semipunctata under the current climate are distributed in the six continents except for Antarctica worldwide. Future climate changes will decrease the suitable area for P. semipunctata in the 2030s and 2050s. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche in the invasive areas. More attention should be paid to early warning signs and monitoring of P. semipunctata in potentially invasive areas. ABSTRACT: Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive.