Single Point Insulin Sensitivity Estimator (SPISE) As a Prognostic Marker for Emerging Dysglycemia in Children with Overweight or Obesity

The single point insulin sensitivity estimator (SPISE) is a recently developed fasting index for insulin sensitivity based on triglycerides, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and body mass index. SPISE has been validated in juveniles and adults; still, its role during childhood remains unclear. To evaluate the age- and sex-specific distribution of SPISE, its correlation with established fasting indexes and its application as a prognostic marker for future dysglycemia during childhood and adolescence were assessed. We performed linear modeling and correlation analyses on a cross-sectional cohort of 2107 children and adolescents (age 5 to 18.4 years) with overweight or obesity. Furthermore, survival analyses were conducted upon a longitudinal cohort of 591 children with overweight/obesity (1712 observations) with a maximum follow-up time of nearly 20 years, targeting prediabetes/dysglycemia as the end point. The SPISE index decreased significantly with age (−0.34 units per year, p < 0.001) among children and adolescents with overweight and obesity. Sex did not have an influence on SPISE. There was a modest correlation between SPISE and established fasting markers of insulin resistance (R = −0.49 for HOMA-IR, R = −0.55 for QUICKI-IR). SPISE is a better prognostic marker for future dysglycemia (hazard ratio (HR) 3.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60–7.51, p < 0.01) than HOMA-IR and QUICKI-IR (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.24–4.81, p < 0.05). The SPISE index is a surrogate marker for insulin resistance predicting emerging dysglycemia in children with overweight or obesity, and could, therefore, be applied to pediatric cohorts that lack direct insulin assessment.