Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Portal vein thrombosis is a common complication of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma; however, few studies have reported its long-term clinical prognosis. This study aimed to establish and validate easy-to-use nomograms for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding, portal vein thrombosis resolution, and mortality of patients with portal vein thrombosis. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 425 patients with portal vein thrombosis who were divided into training (n = 334) and validation (n = 91) sets. Prediction models were developed using multivariate Cox regression analysis and evaluated using the consistency index and calibration plots. RESULTS: Predictors of gastrointestinal bleeding included a history of gastrointestinal bleeding, superior mesenteric vein thrombosis, red color sign observed during endoscopy, and hepatic encephalopathy. Meanwhile, predictors of resolution of portal vein thrombosis included a history of abdominal infection, C-reactive protein and hemoglobin levels, and intake of thrombolytics. Predictors of death included abdominal infection, abdominal surgery, aspartate aminotransferase level, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites. All models had good discriminatory power and consistency. Anticoagulation therapy significantly increased the probability of thrombotic resolution without increasing the risk of bleeding or death. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully developed and validated three prediction models that can aid in the early evaluation and treatment of portal vein thrombosis. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12959-023-00455-w.