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Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States

BACKGROUND: Race is a prognostic indicator in kidney transplant (KT). However, the effect of donor-recipient race-matching on survival after KT remains unclear. METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, a retrospective study was conducted on 244,037 adults who received fir...

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Autores principales: Lv, Kaikai, Wu, Yangyang, Lai, Wenhui, Hao, Xiaowei, Xia, Xinze, Huang, Shuai, Luo, Zhenjun, Lv, Chao, Qing, Yuan, Song, Tao
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9869683/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36700016
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.1050416
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author Lv, Kaikai
Wu, Yangyang
Lai, Wenhui
Hao, Xiaowei
Xia, Xinze
Huang, Shuai
Luo, Zhenjun
Lv, Chao
Qing, Yuan
Song, Tao
author_facet Lv, Kaikai
Wu, Yangyang
Lai, Wenhui
Hao, Xiaowei
Xia, Xinze
Huang, Shuai
Luo, Zhenjun
Lv, Chao
Qing, Yuan
Song, Tao
author_sort Lv, Kaikai
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Race is a prognostic indicator in kidney transplant (KT). However, the effect of donor-recipient race-matching on survival after KT remains unclear. METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, a retrospective study was conducted on 244,037 adults who received first-time, kidney-alone transplantation between 2000 and 2019. All patients were categorized into two groups according to donor-recipient race-matching, and the living and deceased donor KT (LDKT and DDKT) were analyzed in subgroups. RESULTS: Of the 244,037 patients, 149,600 (61%) were race-matched, including 107,351 (87%) Caucasian, 20,741 (31%) African Americans, 17,927 (47%) Hispanics, and 3,581 (25%) Asians. Compared with race-unmatching, race-matching showed a reduced risk of overall mortality and graft loss (unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84–0.87; and unadjusted HR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.78–0.80, respectively). After propensity score-matching, donor-recipient race-matching was associated with a decreased risk of overall graft loss (P < 0.001) but not mortality. In subgroup analysis, race-matching was associated with higher crude mortality (HR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06–1.20 in LDKT and HR 1.11, 95% CI: 1.09–1.14 in DDKT). However, race-matching was associated with a decreased risk of graft loss in DDKT (unadjusted HR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96–0.99), but not in LDKT. After propensity score-matching, race-matching had better outcomes for LDKT (patient survival, P = 0.047; graft survival, P < 0.001; and death-censored graft survival, P < 0.001) and DDKT (death-censored graft survival, P = 0.018). Nonetheless, race-matching was associated with an increased adjusted mortality rate in the DDKT group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Race-matching provided modest survival advantages after KT but was not enough to influence organ offers. Cofounding factors at baseline led to a contorted crude conclusion in subgroups, which was reversed again to normal trends in the combined analysis due to Simpson's paradox caused by the LDKT/DDKT ratio.
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spelling pubmed-98696832023-01-24 Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States Lv, Kaikai Wu, Yangyang Lai, Wenhui Hao, Xiaowei Xia, Xinze Huang, Shuai Luo, Zhenjun Lv, Chao Qing, Yuan Song, Tao Front Surg Surgery BACKGROUND: Race is a prognostic indicator in kidney transplant (KT). However, the effect of donor-recipient race-matching on survival after KT remains unclear. METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, a retrospective study was conducted on 244,037 adults who received first-time, kidney-alone transplantation between 2000 and 2019. All patients were categorized into two groups according to donor-recipient race-matching, and the living and deceased donor KT (LDKT and DDKT) were analyzed in subgroups. RESULTS: Of the 244,037 patients, 149,600 (61%) were race-matched, including 107,351 (87%) Caucasian, 20,741 (31%) African Americans, 17,927 (47%) Hispanics, and 3,581 (25%) Asians. Compared with race-unmatching, race-matching showed a reduced risk of overall mortality and graft loss (unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84–0.87; and unadjusted HR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.78–0.80, respectively). After propensity score-matching, donor-recipient race-matching was associated with a decreased risk of overall graft loss (P < 0.001) but not mortality. In subgroup analysis, race-matching was associated with higher crude mortality (HR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06–1.20 in LDKT and HR 1.11, 95% CI: 1.09–1.14 in DDKT). However, race-matching was associated with a decreased risk of graft loss in DDKT (unadjusted HR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96–0.99), but not in LDKT. After propensity score-matching, race-matching had better outcomes for LDKT (patient survival, P = 0.047; graft survival, P < 0.001; and death-censored graft survival, P < 0.001) and DDKT (death-censored graft survival, P = 0.018). Nonetheless, race-matching was associated with an increased adjusted mortality rate in the DDKT group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Race-matching provided modest survival advantages after KT but was not enough to influence organ offers. Cofounding factors at baseline led to a contorted crude conclusion in subgroups, which was reversed again to normal trends in the combined analysis due to Simpson's paradox caused by the LDKT/DDKT ratio. Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-01-09 /pmc/articles/PMC9869683/ /pubmed/36700016 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.1050416 Text en © 2023 Lv, Wu, Lai, Hao, Xia, Huang , Luo, Lv, Yuan and Song. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Surgery
Lv, Kaikai
Wu, Yangyang
Lai, Wenhui
Hao, Xiaowei
Xia, Xinze
Huang, Shuai
Luo, Zhenjun
Lv, Chao
Qing, Yuan
Song, Tao
Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States
title Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States
title_full Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States
title_fullStr Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States
title_full_unstemmed Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States
title_short Simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the United States
title_sort simpson's paradox and the impact of donor-recipient race-matching on outcomes post living or deceased donor kidney transplantation in the united states
topic Surgery
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9869683/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36700016
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.1050416
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