Crash harm before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence for spatial heterogeneity in Tennessee

Major concerns have been raised about road safety during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, as the crash fatalities have increased, despite the substantial reduction in traffic. However, a comprehensive analysis of safety–critical events on roadways based on a broader set of traffic safety metrics and their correlates is needed. In addition to fatalities, this study uses changes in total crashes and total monetary harm as additional measures of safety. A comprehensive and unique time-series database of crashes and socio-economic variables is created at the county level in Tennessee. Statistics show that while fatal crashes increase by 8.2%, total crashes decrease by 15.3%, and the total harm cost is lower by about $1.76 billion during COVID-19 (2020) compared with pre-COVID-19 conditions (2019). Several models, including generalized least squares linear, Poisson, and geographically weighted regression models using the differences between 2020 and 2019 values, are estimated to rigorously quantify the correlates of fatalities, crashes, and crash harm. The results indicate that compared to the pre-pandemic periods, fatal crashes that occurred during the pandemic are associated with more speeding & reckless behaviors and varied across jurisdictions. Fatal crashes are more likely to happen on interstates and dark-not-lighted roads and involve commercial trucks. These same factors largely contribute to crash harm. In addition, a greater number of long trips per person not staying home during COVID-19 is found to be associated with more crashes and crash harm. These results can inform policymaking to strengthen traffic law enforcement through appropriate countermeasures, such as the placement of warning signs and the reduction of the speed limit in hotspots.