Continuity or change? How the onset of COVID‐19 affected internal migration in Australia

Despite anecdotal evidence of a COVID‐19 induced decline in the intensity of interstate migration in Australia, population‐level evidence is limited. The recent release of the 2020 wave of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey provides a unique opportunity to robustly assess the effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the level, direction, determinants, and reasons for migration in Australia. By applying a series of regression models to individual‐level longitudinal microdata, and measuring migration at a range of spatial scales, this paper shows that COVID‐19 has somewhat accelerated the long‐term decline in the intensity of internal migration—particularly for residential mobility, short‐distance migration, and migration due to employment and involuntary reasons. The socio‐demographic determinants of migration have remained broadly stable, despite a slight increase in the deterring effect of duration of residence and a reduction in the impact of education. Finally, we show that the increase in net migration gains in regional areas is underpinned by a decrease in outflows. Juxtaposing these results with aggregate‐level migration statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics from 2021, we conclude that the effect of COVID‐19 on internal migration to date has been minimal and is likely to be short‐lived. However, it may still be too soon to make a definitive judgement, as shifts in work patterns stemming from the pandemic may further transform the level, direction, and composition of internal migration.