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Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission
To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic–viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the ant...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9876374/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36608108 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010797 |
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author | Asher, Jason Lemenuel-Diot, Annabelle Clay, Matthew Durham, David P. Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis Arguello, Carlos J. Jolivet, Sebastien Wong, Diana Y. Kuhlbusch, Klaus Clinch, Barry Charoin, Jean-Eric |
author_facet | Asher, Jason Lemenuel-Diot, Annabelle Clay, Matthew Durham, David P. Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis Arguello, Carlos J. Jolivet, Sebastien Wong, Diana Y. Kuhlbusch, Klaus Clinch, Barry Charoin, Jean-Eric |
author_sort | Asher, Jason |
collection | PubMed |
description | To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic–viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the antivirals oseltamivir or baloxavir has on influenza transmission. The model was run under three candidate profiles whereby infectiousness was assumed to be proportional to viral titer on a natural-scale, log-scale, or dose–response model. Viral kinetic profiles in the presence and absence of antiviral treatment were compared for each individual (N = 1000 simulated individuals); subsequently, viral transmission mitigation was calculated. The predicted transmission mitigation was greater with earlier administration of antiviral treatment, and with baloxavir versus oseltamivir. When treatment was initiated 12–24 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation was 39.9–56.4% for baloxavir and 26.6–38.3% for oseltamivir depending on the infectiousness profile. When treatment was initiated 36–48 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation decreased to 0.8–28.3% for baloxavir and 0.8–19.9% for oseltamivir. Model estimates were compared with clinical data from the BLOCKSTONE post-exposure prophylaxis study, which indicated the log-scale model for infectiousness best fit the observed data and that baloxavir affords greater reductions in secondary case rates compared with neuraminidase inhibitors. These findings suggest a role for baloxavir and oseltamivir in reducing influenza transmission when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset in the index patient. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9876374 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-98763742023-01-26 Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission Asher, Jason Lemenuel-Diot, Annabelle Clay, Matthew Durham, David P. Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis Arguello, Carlos J. Jolivet, Sebastien Wong, Diana Y. Kuhlbusch, Klaus Clinch, Barry Charoin, Jean-Eric PLoS Comput Biol Research Article To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic–viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the antivirals oseltamivir or baloxavir has on influenza transmission. The model was run under three candidate profiles whereby infectiousness was assumed to be proportional to viral titer on a natural-scale, log-scale, or dose–response model. Viral kinetic profiles in the presence and absence of antiviral treatment were compared for each individual (N = 1000 simulated individuals); subsequently, viral transmission mitigation was calculated. The predicted transmission mitigation was greater with earlier administration of antiviral treatment, and with baloxavir versus oseltamivir. When treatment was initiated 12–24 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation was 39.9–56.4% for baloxavir and 26.6–38.3% for oseltamivir depending on the infectiousness profile. When treatment was initiated 36–48 hours post symptom onset, the predicted transmission mitigation decreased to 0.8–28.3% for baloxavir and 0.8–19.9% for oseltamivir. Model estimates were compared with clinical data from the BLOCKSTONE post-exposure prophylaxis study, which indicated the log-scale model for infectiousness best fit the observed data and that baloxavir affords greater reductions in secondary case rates compared with neuraminidase inhibitors. These findings suggest a role for baloxavir and oseltamivir in reducing influenza transmission when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset in the index patient. Public Library of Science 2023-01-06 /pmc/articles/PMC9876374/ /pubmed/36608108 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010797 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Asher, Jason Lemenuel-Diot, Annabelle Clay, Matthew Durham, David P. Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Luis Arguello, Carlos J. Jolivet, Sebastien Wong, Diana Y. Kuhlbusch, Klaus Clinch, Barry Charoin, Jean-Eric Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission |
title | Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission |
title_full | Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission |
title_fullStr | Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission |
title_full_unstemmed | Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission |
title_short | Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission |
title_sort | novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9876374/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36608108 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010797 |
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