Determinants and prediction of Chlamydia trachomatis re-testing and re-infection within 1 year among heterosexuals with chlamydia attending a sexual health clinic

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections (STI) globally, and re-infections are common. Current Australian guidelines recommend re-testing for chlamydia 3 months after treatment to identify possible re-infection. Patient-delivered partner therapy (PDPT) has been proposed to control chlamydia re-infection among heterosexuals. We aimed to identify determinants and the prediction of chlamydia re-testing and re-infection within 1 year among heterosexuals with chlamydia to identify potential PDPT candidates. METHODS: Our baseline data included 5,806 heterosexuals with chlamydia aged ≥18 years and 2,070 re-tested for chlamydia within 1 year of their chlamydia diagnosis at the Melbourne Sexual Health Center from January 2, 2015, to May 15, 2020. We used routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) variables and machine-learning models to predict chlamydia re-testing and re-infection events. We also used logistic regression to investigate factors associated with chlamydia re-testing and re-infection. RESULTS: About 2,070 (36%) of 5,806 heterosexuals with chlamydia were re-tested for chlamydia within 1 year. Among those retested, 307 (15%) were re-infected. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that older age (≥35 years old), female, living with HIV, being a current sex worker, patient-delivered partner therapy users, and higher numbers of sex partners were associated with an increased chlamydia re-testing within 1 year. Multivariable logistic regression analysis also showed that younger age (18–24 years), male gender, and living with HIV were associated with an increased chlamydia re-infection within 1 year. The XGBoost model was the best model for predicting chlamydia re-testing and re-infection within 1 year among heterosexuals with chlamydia; however, machine learning approaches and these self-reported answers from clients did not provide a good predictive value (AUC < 60.0%). CONCLUSION: The low rate of chlamydia re-testing and high rate of chlamydia re-infection among heterosexuals with chlamydia highlights the need for further interventions. Better targeting of individuals more likely to be re-infected is needed to optimize the provision of PDPT and encourage the test of re-infection at 3 months.