Predictive model of the dropout intention of Chilean university students

Dropping out of university studies is one of the current problems of Higher Education; the increased rates during the first year of the study programme is considerable around the world. Dropping out has negative social implications that are reflected at the personal, family, institutional, and educational levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate a predictive model considering the mediation of university social satisfaction and perceived academic performance within the relations between perceived social support, social self-efficacy and academic purposes with career satisfaction and dropout intention in Chilean university students. A non-experimental explanatory design of latent and observed variables was used. Structural equation analyses with Mplus software were performed. The sample consisted of 956 first year university students. The study complied with the ethical requirements for research with human subjects. As a result, a predictive model with adequate adjustment indexes was obtained. When evaluating the explanatory capacity through the coefficient of determination (R(2)), it was observed that it explains 38.9 and 27.4% of the variance of the dropout intention and career satisfaction, respectively. This percentage of explanation indicates a large effect size in Social Sciences; therefore, they are considered adequate predictive models. The mediation of university social satisfaction on the relationships between social support, social self-efficacy, and academic purposes with academic adjustment and dropout intention was, respectively, confirmed. The perception of academic performance has less influence on dropout intention and on career satisfaction among first-year students. The model obtained allows explaining the dropout intention and career satisfaction in first year students. In addition, it is composed of variables that can potentially be modified in the interaction of students and professors.