Incidental coronary artery calcification on non-gated CT thorax correlates with risk of cardiovascular events and death

OBJECTIVES: To assess coronary artery calcification (CAC) on non-contrast non-ECG-gated CT thorax (NC-NECG-CTT) and to evaluate its correlation with short-term risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and death. METHODS: Single-institution retrospective study including all patients 40–70 years old who underwent NC-NECG-CTT over a period of 6 months. Individuals with known CVD were excluded. The presence of CAC was assessed and quantified by the Agatston score (CACS). CAC severity was defined as mild (< 100), moderate (100–400), or severe (> 400). CVD events (including CVD death, myocardial infarction, revascularisation procedures, ischaemic stroke, acute peripheral atherosclerotic ischaemia), and all-cause mortality over a median of 3.5 years were recorded. Cox proportional-hazards regression modelling was performed including CACS, age, gender and CVD risk factors (smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, and family history of CVD). RESULTS: Of the total 717 eligible cases, 325 (45%) had CAC. In patients without CAC, there was only one CVD event, compared to 26 CVD events including 5 deaths in patients with CAC. The presence and severity of CAC correlated with CVD events (p < 0.001). A CACS > 100 was significantly associated with both CVD events, hazard ratio (HR) 5.74, 95% confidence interval: 2.19–15.02; p < 0.001, and all-cause mortality, HR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.08–2.66; p = 0.02. Ever-smokers with CAC had a significantly higher risk for all-cause mortality compared to never-smokers (p = 0.03), but smoking status was not an independent predictor for CVD events in any subgroup category of CAC severity. CONCLUSIONS: The presence and severity of CAC assessed on NC-NECG-CTT correlates with short-term cardiovascular events and death. KEY POINTS: • Patients aged 40–70 years old without known CVD but with CAC on NC-NECG-CTT have a higher risk of CVD events compared to those without CAC. • CAC (Agatston) score above 100 confers a 5.7-fold increase in the risk of short-term CVD events in these patients. • The presence and severity of CAC on NC-NECG-CTT may have prognostic and therapeutic implications. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-023-09428-z.