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A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism

Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differ...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Hongshen, Zhang, Yongtao, He, Shibo, Fang, Yi, Cheng, Yanggang, Shi, Zhiguo, Shao, Cunqi, Li, Chao, Ying, Songmin, Gong, Zhenyu, Liu, Yu, Dong, Lin, Sun, Youxian, Jia, Jianmin, Stanley, H. Eugene, Chen, Jiming
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9883831/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37521201
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s42949-023-00082-4
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author Zhang, Hongshen
Zhang, Yongtao
He, Shibo
Fang, Yi
Cheng, Yanggang
Shi, Zhiguo
Shao, Cunqi
Li, Chao
Ying, Songmin
Gong, Zhenyu
Liu, Yu
Dong, Lin
Sun, Youxian
Jia, Jianmin
Stanley, H. Eugene
Chen, Jiming
author_facet Zhang, Hongshen
Zhang, Yongtao
He, Shibo
Fang, Yi
Cheng, Yanggang
Shi, Zhiguo
Shao, Cunqi
Li, Chao
Ying, Songmin
Gong, Zhenyu
Liu, Yu
Dong, Lin
Sun, Youxian
Jia, Jianmin
Stanley, H. Eugene
Chen, Jiming
author_sort Zhang, Hongshen
collection PubMed
description Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differences in contagion rates due to the urban socio-political measures, while fine-grained geographic urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in nine cities in China. We find a general spreading pattern in all cities: the spatial distribution of confirmed cases follows a power-law-like model and the spreading centroid human mobility is time-invariant. Moreover, we reveal that long average traveling distance results in a high growth rate of spreading radius and wide spatial diffusion of confirmed cases in the fine-grained geographic model. With such insight, we adopt the Kendall model to simulate the urban spreading of COVID-19 which can well fit the real spreading process. Our results unveil the underlying mechanism behind the spatial-temporal urban evolution of COVID-19, and can be used to evaluate the performance of mobility restriction policies implemented by many governments and to estimate the evolving spreading situation of COVID-19.
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spelling pubmed-98838312023-01-30 A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism Zhang, Hongshen Zhang, Yongtao He, Shibo Fang, Yi Cheng, Yanggang Shi, Zhiguo Shao, Cunqi Li, Chao Ying, Songmin Gong, Zhenyu Liu, Yu Dong, Lin Sun, Youxian Jia, Jianmin Stanley, H. Eugene Chen, Jiming npj Urban Sustain Article Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differences in contagion rates due to the urban socio-political measures, while fine-grained geographic urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in nine cities in China. We find a general spreading pattern in all cities: the spatial distribution of confirmed cases follows a power-law-like model and the spreading centroid human mobility is time-invariant. Moreover, we reveal that long average traveling distance results in a high growth rate of spreading radius and wide spatial diffusion of confirmed cases in the fine-grained geographic model. With such insight, we adopt the Kendall model to simulate the urban spreading of COVID-19 which can well fit the real spreading process. Our results unveil the underlying mechanism behind the spatial-temporal urban evolution of COVID-19, and can be used to evaluate the performance of mobility restriction policies implemented by many governments and to estimate the evolving spreading situation of COVID-19. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-01-28 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9883831/ /pubmed/37521201 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s42949-023-00082-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Hongshen
Zhang, Yongtao
He, Shibo
Fang, Yi
Cheng, Yanggang
Shi, Zhiguo
Shao, Cunqi
Li, Chao
Ying, Songmin
Gong, Zhenyu
Liu, Yu
Dong, Lin
Sun, Youxian
Jia, Jianmin
Stanley, H. Eugene
Chen, Jiming
A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism
title A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism
title_full A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism
title_fullStr A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism
title_full_unstemmed A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism
title_short A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism
title_sort general urban spreading pattern of covid-19 and its underlying mechanism
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9883831/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37521201
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s42949-023-00082-4
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