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A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism
Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differ...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9883831/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37521201 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s42949-023-00082-4 |
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author | Zhang, Hongshen Zhang, Yongtao He, Shibo Fang, Yi Cheng, Yanggang Shi, Zhiguo Shao, Cunqi Li, Chao Ying, Songmin Gong, Zhenyu Liu, Yu Dong, Lin Sun, Youxian Jia, Jianmin Stanley, H. Eugene Chen, Jiming |
author_facet | Zhang, Hongshen Zhang, Yongtao He, Shibo Fang, Yi Cheng, Yanggang Shi, Zhiguo Shao, Cunqi Li, Chao Ying, Songmin Gong, Zhenyu Liu, Yu Dong, Lin Sun, Youxian Jia, Jianmin Stanley, H. Eugene Chen, Jiming |
author_sort | Zhang, Hongshen |
collection | PubMed |
description | Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differences in contagion rates due to the urban socio-political measures, while fine-grained geographic urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in nine cities in China. We find a general spreading pattern in all cities: the spatial distribution of confirmed cases follows a power-law-like model and the spreading centroid human mobility is time-invariant. Moreover, we reveal that long average traveling distance results in a high growth rate of spreading radius and wide spatial diffusion of confirmed cases in the fine-grained geographic model. With such insight, we adopt the Kendall model to simulate the urban spreading of COVID-19 which can well fit the real spreading process. Our results unveil the underlying mechanism behind the spatial-temporal urban evolution of COVID-19, and can be used to evaluate the performance of mobility restriction policies implemented by many governments and to estimate the evolving spreading situation of COVID-19. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9883831 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-98838312023-01-30 A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism Zhang, Hongshen Zhang, Yongtao He, Shibo Fang, Yi Cheng, Yanggang Shi, Zhiguo Shao, Cunqi Li, Chao Ying, Songmin Gong, Zhenyu Liu, Yu Dong, Lin Sun, Youxian Jia, Jianmin Stanley, H. Eugene Chen, Jiming npj Urban Sustain Article Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differences in contagion rates due to the urban socio-political measures, while fine-grained geographic urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in nine cities in China. We find a general spreading pattern in all cities: the spatial distribution of confirmed cases follows a power-law-like model and the spreading centroid human mobility is time-invariant. Moreover, we reveal that long average traveling distance results in a high growth rate of spreading radius and wide spatial diffusion of confirmed cases in the fine-grained geographic model. With such insight, we adopt the Kendall model to simulate the urban spreading of COVID-19 which can well fit the real spreading process. Our results unveil the underlying mechanism behind the spatial-temporal urban evolution of COVID-19, and can be used to evaluate the performance of mobility restriction policies implemented by many governments and to estimate the evolving spreading situation of COVID-19. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-01-28 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9883831/ /pubmed/37521201 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s42949-023-00082-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Zhang, Hongshen Zhang, Yongtao He, Shibo Fang, Yi Cheng, Yanggang Shi, Zhiguo Shao, Cunqi Li, Chao Ying, Songmin Gong, Zhenyu Liu, Yu Dong, Lin Sun, Youxian Jia, Jianmin Stanley, H. Eugene Chen, Jiming A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism |
title | A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism |
title_full | A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism |
title_fullStr | A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism |
title_full_unstemmed | A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism |
title_short | A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism |
title_sort | general urban spreading pattern of covid-19 and its underlying mechanism |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9883831/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37521201 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s42949-023-00082-4 |
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