Identification of an unfolded protein response-related signature for predicting the prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a highly aggressive lethal malignancy. An effective prognosis prediction model is urgently needed for treatment optimization. METHODS: The differentially expressed unfolded protein response (UPR)‒related genes between pancreatic tumor and normal tissue were analyzed using the TCGA-PDAC dataset, and these genes that overlapped with UPR‒related prognostic genes from the E-MTAB-6134 dataset were further analyzed. Univariate, LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to establish a prognostic gene signature, which was evaluated by Kaplan‒Meier curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. E‒MTAB‒6134 was set as the training dataset, while TCGA-PDAC, GSE21501 and ICGC-PACA-AU were used for external validation. Subsequently, a nomogram integrating risk scores and clinical parameters was established, and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA), tumor immunity analysis and drug sensitivity analysis were conducted. RESULTS: A UPR-related signature comprising twelve genes was constructed and divided PDAC patients into high- and low-risk groups based on the median risk score. The UPR-related signature accurately predicted the prognosis and acted as an independent prognostic factor of PDAC patients, and the AUCs of the UPR-related signature in predicting PDAC prognosis at 1, 2 and 3 years were all more than 0.7 in the training and validation datasets. The UPR-related signature showed excellent performance in outcome prediction even in different clinicopathological subgroups, including the female (p<0.0001), male (p<0.0001), grade 1/2 (p<0.0001), grade 3 (p=0.028), N0 (p=0.043), N1 (p<0.001), and R0 (p<0.0001) groups. Furthermore, multiple immune-related pathways were enriched in the low-risk group, and risk scores in the low-risk group were also associated with significantly higher levels of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs). In addition, DepMap drug sensitivity analysis and our validation experiment showed that PDAC cell lines with high UPR-related risk scores or UPR activation are more sensitive to floxuridine, which is used as an antineoplastic agent. CONCLUSION: Herein, we identified a novel UPR-related prognostic signature that showed high value in predicting survival in patients with PDAC. Targeting these UPR-related genes might be an alternative for PDAC therapy. Further experimental studies are required to reveal how these genes mediate ER stress and PDAC progression.