Cargando…

Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include sho...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Kaufmann, Sylvia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9887556/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36744046
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41937-023-00106-x
Descripción
Sumario:We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log number of short-time workers as timely available current-quarter indicator. Yearly GDP growth forecasts serve cross-checking, in particular at the outbreak of the pandemic.