Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include sho...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Kaufmann, Sylvia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2023
Materias:
Original Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9887556/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36744046
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41937-023-00106-x
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author Kaufmann, Sylvia
author_facet Kaufmann, Sylvia
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description We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log number of short-time workers as timely available current-quarter indicator. Yearly GDP growth forecasts serve cross-checking, in particular at the outbreak of the pandemic.
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spelling pubmed-98875562023-01-31 Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting Kaufmann, Sylvia Swiss J Econ Stat Original Article We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log number of short-time workers as timely available current-quarter indicator. Yearly GDP growth forecasts serve cross-checking, in particular at the outbreak of the pandemic. Springer International Publishing 2023-01-31 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9887556/ /pubmed/36744046 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41937-023-00106-x Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Original Article
Kaufmann, Sylvia
Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting
title Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting
title_full Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting
title_fullStr Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting
title_full_unstemmed Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting
title_short Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting
title_sort covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for gdp now- and forecasting
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9887556/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36744046
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41937-023-00106-x
work_keys_str_mv AT kaufmannsylvia covid19outbreakandbeyondaretrospectontheinformationcontentofshorttimeworkersforgdpnowandforecasting

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