Can the cancellation of government subsidies alleviate the phenomenon of overcapacity in the photovoltaic module industry? From a dynamic perspective

The environmental pollution problem stimulates the photovoltaic industry’s vigorous development and further promotes the prosperity of the module manufacturing industry. After the cancellation of government subsidies, how the phenomenon of overcapacity that has always existed in the module manufacturing industry will develop is one of the essential issues that we need to consider. This paper constructs a systematic framework to analyze the driving mechanism of government subsidies on overcapacity. Then, a system dynamics model is established to predict the development trend of overcapacity after the cancellation of government subsidies. The result shows that: (i) By 2030, the production capacity will exceed 600 GW in China’s photovoltaic module industry, which is about two times that of 2021. Moreover, its price and cost will drop to 0.46 yuan/W and 0.41 yuan/W, which are down 67% and 60%, respectively, compared to 2021; (ii) After the cancellation of government subsidies, the phenomenon of overcapacity will not disappear soon, and it will continue until 2030. In 2030, the production capacity utilization rate will reach 80%, and the phenomenon of overcapacity will disappear; (iii) From the perspective of production factors, the impact of the labor factor on the production capacity is minimal. In the initial stage, technology and capital factors are vital. As the industry matures, the influence of the capital factor will gradually weaken. Finally, we have put forward corresponding policy implications.